From Shadow War to Open Conflict
Inside Israel’s 2025 Strikes on Iran
Before dawn on Friday, 13 June 2025, the Middle East’s most enduring covert conflict exploded into open warfare. In a massive "pre-emptive" attack, Israel launched wave after wave of airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leadership – a dramatic escalation in a 40-year shadow war that had until now largely been waged via covert ops and proxies. As explosions rocked Tehran and other Iranian cities, and as Iran hit back with missiles at Tel Aviv, the long-feared direct clash between the two regional adversaries became a grim reality. What followed was a whirlwind of destruction, retaliation, and global alarm that has left dozens dead, sent oil prices surging, and pushed an already volatile region to the brink.
Decades of Conflict in the Shadows
Israel and Iran have been locked in a furtive struggle since the 1979 Islamic Revolution turned the two former allies into bitter foes. Their rivalry has played out through espionage, cyber sabotage, proxy militias, and assassinations rather than conventional battles. Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Syria have long duelled with Israeli forces, while Mossad agents and Revolutionary Guard operatives engaged in a high-stakes cat-and-mouse game across the Middle East and even on Iranian soil.
This clandestine campaign included the Stuxnet cyberattack that crippled Iran’s nuclear centrifuges in 2010, mysterious blasts at Iranian missile depots, and the brazen assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists on the streets of Tehran. For decades, Tehran absorbed these blows and responded in kind via deniable means – arming Hezbollah, aiding Palestinian factions, and launching cyberattacks. But open war was avoided.
That began to change in 2018 with Israel’s heist of Iran’s secret nuclear archives and continued with the 2020 killing of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, reportedly by a remote-controlled weapon. By 2024, Israeli warplanes regularly struck Iranian weapons sites in Syria, and tit-for-tat clashes flared across the region. The Hamas-Israel war in October 2023, which Israel blamed on Tehran’s backing, accelerated this trend. In April 2024, Israel and Iran exchanged direct strikes for the first time. June 2025 was the inevitable culmination.
"Operation Rising Lion": Israel Strikes at Dawn
In the early hours of 13 June, Israel announced it had launched a large-scale military operation against Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. Codenamed Operation Rising Lion, the assault involved around 200 aircraft entering Iranian airspace from multiple directions. Explosions lit up the skies over Tehran, with major strikes hitting the Natanz uranium enrichment complex, the Fordo site, and research facilities in Isfahan.
The UN’s nuclear watchdog confirmed significant damage at Natanz, including the destruction of power systems and critical enrichment infrastructure. While the underground facilities at Natanz survived, the loss of power may have compromised the centrifuges within. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation acknowledged strikes on multiple sites.
Israel also targeted key figures. General Mohammad Bagheri, IRGC chief of staff; Major General Hossein Salami, IRGC commander; Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC Aerospace Force; and Major General Gholam Ali Rashid, a senior strategist, were all confirmed dead. Israeli sources claimed nine senior nuclear scientists were also killed, including Dr. Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani.
Mossad’s Inside Game
What made this strike so devastating was the groundwork laid by Mossad. Israeli operatives had smuggled weapons into Iran and established hidden drone launch sites. These internal teams disabled radar and air defence systems with explosives and drones launched from within Iranian territory, blinding Iran’s early warning systems just before the aerial assault. Israel claimed every aircraft returned safely, citing the success of this coordinated sabotage.
In a rare move, Mossad released footage of drones destroying Iranian launchers, delivering a blunt message: Israel could operate with impunity inside Iran. Tehran responded with fury, with Ayatollah Khamenei lambasting internal security failures and sacking several counterintelligence officers.
Tehran Strikes Back
Within hours, Iran retaliated with ballistic missile salvos and drone attacks. Missiles targeted Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, some launched by Iran’s regional allies. While most were intercepted, several reached Israeli cities. A missile hit Rishon LeZion, killing two and injuring 19. Three Israelis were confirmed dead overall, including the first civilian casualties from a direct Iranian strike.
Israeli air defences, supported by American systems, intercepted the bulk of the attack, though some military facilities were also hit. Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that if Iran continued, "Tehran will burn." Both sides signalled readiness for escalation.
Iran reported 78 dead and over 320 wounded, claiming most were civilians. Western analysts believe many were IRGC or nuclear personnel. In Israel, 70 people were injured in addition to the three killed. The Natanz complex suffered serious damage, potentially delaying Iran’s nuclear timeline. Israeli sources hinted more strikes could follow.
Globally, oil prices surged and flight routes were disrupted. The Strait of Hormuz became a focal point of concern. Some tanker traffic paused, and insurance premiums skyrocketed. Economists warned of inflationary pressures and market instability.
Diplomatic Fallout
The international reaction was mixed. The U.S., under President Trump, expressed support for Israel, emphasising that while informed, it had not participated in the strike. Arab states condemned Israel publicly but expressed private concern over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Saudi Arabia called for restraint, and the UAE convened a GCC emergency meeting. Qatar offered to mediate.
European leaders, blindsided by the strike, called for calm. Macron stressed that France had not endorsed military action. Britain urged diplomacy. The EU's role was limited. Meanwhile, Iran declared that nuclear talks were over, denouncing the U.S. and Israel as aggressors. Planned talks in Oman collapsed.
At the UN, opposing narratives clashed. Israel defended its actions as preventative. Iran accused it of terrorism and blamed the U.S. for complicity. The Security Council failed to pass any resolution, and Secretary-General Guterres urged restraint.
Sanctions are likely to tighten. Iran’s rial fell sharply. The U.S. and allies may trigger the snapback mechanism to reinstate UN sanctions. The IAEA, having just censured Iran, now finds itself in a delicate position. Director-General Rafael Grossi confirmed that the Natanz facility was severely damaged but noted that the underground sections remained intact.
Iran accused the IAEA of being politicised and restricted inspector access. Observers fear this could blind the world to Iran’s post-strike nuclear status. Tehran also criticised the double standard of Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal being ignored.
A Dangerous New Phase
This is no longer a shadow war. Israel and Iran are openly trading blows. Netanyahu framed the strike as vital for Israel’s survival, while Khamenei promised vengeance. The conflict could morph into asymmetric warfare: cyberattacks, proxy strikes, maritime disruption, or attacks abroad.
Israel says its military is on alert for a prolonged operation. Iran may lean on Hezbollah or Iraqi militias, keeping direct conflict limited. Macron floated a proposal for a temporary pause, but both sides appear unwilling to concede. The region waits in dread.
After 40 years of sabotage and deniable operations, the Middle East’s most dangerous rivalry is now centre stage. Whether diplomacy can pull the region back from the brink or whether this will escalate into a regional war may be decided in the coming days. The genie is out of the bottle. And the world is watching.
This is a fluid situation as the conflict expands, and international bodies have failed to prevent it from reaching this stage.
More updates will follow as events unfold, but the current situation is clear. Israel undermined the U.S.-Iran talks regarding Iran's nuclear deal by launching pre-emptive strikes just days before the meeting. While these actions were illegal, legality has never been a concern for Israel. The pre-emptive strikes have put President Trump in a difficult position, forcing him to choose between maintaining his peace-promoting image or succumbing to Netanyahu's push for the U.S. to join Israel in attacking Iran.
Some view the events of October 7th in Israel as Iran's attempt to disrupt the Abraham Accords, which were part of Trump's agenda during his first term. Many questions remain unanswered. The reality is that these two arch-rivals are in direct conflict. World War II was labelled as such after many smaller conflicts merged into a larger war. Is this situation similar, or is it simply another flare-up?
Arguably, the event of October 7th in Israel is framed in certain circles as Iran's attempt to disrupt the Abraham Accords, which was the plan of Trump in his first term. Who knows? Many questions remain unanswered and urgently require resolution. The reality is that these two arch rivals are directly in conflict. World War 2 was labelled as such after many smaller conflicts coalesced into a world War - is this the same, or is this just another flare-up?