The resignation and departure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a pivotal moment in the region’s history. With Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seizing control of key state institutions, this development highlights the culmination of over a decade of war and external interference. The implications stretch beyond Syria, threatening to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East.
The Syrian Civil War, ignited in 2011 during the Arab Spring, quickly spiralled into a multi-faceted conflict. What began as protests against authoritarianism turned into a brutal war, fracturing Syria into territories controlled by Assad’s regime, opposition groups, Kurdish forces, and ISIS. Over 14 million Syrians had been displaced—half the country’s pre-war population—with six million seeking asylum abroad and countless others languishing in overcrowded refugee camps. Within Syria, prisons held tens of thousands of political detainees in dire conditions, underscoring the humanitarian catastrophe.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham emerged as a dominant opposition force with roots in Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Initially backed by the U.S. in its fight against ISIS, HTS strategically pivoted to present itself as a nationalist movement, distancing from extremist origins. This rebranding, however, has not erased its history of violence or its opportunistic alliances with foreign powers seeking to exploit Syria’s instability. The parallels with other militant groups like the Taliban are striking. Both were shaped by foreign interventions, only to later challenge the very powers that once supported them.
Syria’s strategic importance has long made it a client state in a global tug-of-war. Russia’s military intervention in 2015 bolstered Assad, securing Moscow’s Mediterranean foothold through the Tartus naval base. Iran, too, saw Syria as a linchpin in its regional Shia Crescent strategy, linking Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Assad’s fall, however, signals a realignment. Russia, distracted by its protracted war in Ukraine, scaled back its influence, while Iran faces challenges maintaining its corridor amid rising instability.
Conversely, Syria’s dependency on these patrons underscored its lack of agency throughout the conflict. Whether as a battlefield for Iranian proxies or a theatre for Russian-American rivalry, Syria’s sovereignty has been repeatedly compromised. The rise of HTS complicates this further, raising questions about whether international powers will engage with or isolate the new rulers. Historical precedents like Afghanistan under the Taliban suggest caution: external manipulation often breeds long-term instability.
The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas adds another dimension. Syria’s regime change may have removed a key player from the Israel-Iran proxy conflict, potentially emboldening Tehran or altering its strategy. Meanwhile, the broader redrawing of regional maps recalls the colonial-era Sykes-Picot Agreement, whose arbitrary borders sowed the seeds of today’s conflicts. The risk of further fragmentation looms large, with ethnic and sectarian divides threatening to pull Syria apart.
The role of Türkiye in the downfall of the Syrian regime, the future of the wider Kurdistan movement, Iraq’s history with the similar downfall of Saddam Hussein and how the country fragmented, and Russia’s future role in the region are but a few questions that remain uncertain. Syria is just one piece of the puzzle in the grand tapestry of the region's more expansive and complex history.
Trade and military routes cannot be ignored, such as foreign aid from international agencies and institutions, the continuity of governance, and opportunists circling for influence loom large. More importantly, what of the mass repatriation from the West back to Syria? These are some of the areas we will continue to write on and follow. This is only the beginning.